NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
4-5-1 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
6-4-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 1.00 | 0.957 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.02 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
2.02
0.957 Ldr
Save %
0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
ISLANDERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
NYI By 1 goal
6.6%
NYI By 2-3 goals
3.7%
WSH By 1 goal
17.5%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
1
NEW YORK
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
NYI @ WSH
1 - 4
Nov 30, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 1
Oct 31, 2025
NYI @ WSH
3 - 1
Oct 11, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025
WSH @ NYI
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+44.4% more
Washington: 5.0
vs
New York: 3.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.7% more
New York: 29.5
vs
Washington: 25.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+14.5% more
New York: 14.2
vs
Washington: 12.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.3%
New York: 52.3%
vs
Washington: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
1.0
3
WSH Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.2 / 14.2
13.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
46.0 / 52.3
37.3 / 62.7
Hits
23.8 / 22.1
14.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
1441.0 / 1420.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.2 / 29.5
23.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 3.5
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYI
WSH
NYI
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0-1
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…