ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
2-3 | Road
128
INDIANA
PACERSIND
0-4 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
PACERS
0%
HAWKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
ATL By 1-7 points
5.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.4%
IND By 1-7 points
16.9%
IND By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
97
ATLANTA
Indiana
111
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
ATL @ IND
124 - 129
Jan 26, 2026
IND @ ATL
116 - 132
Oct 31, 2025
ATL @ IND
128 - 108
Mar 8, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 120
Mar 6, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.4% more
Indiana: 5.7
vs
Atlanta: 4.9
Rebounding (L5)
+13.3% more
Indiana: 14.5
vs
Atlanta: 12.8
Steals (L5)
+9.3% more
Indiana: 2.7
vs
Atlanta: 2.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Indiana: 31.8%
vs
Atlanta: 28.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
97.0
128
IND Score
111.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 28.5
30.2 / 28.6
Assists
7.2 / 7.8
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
1.4 / 1.8
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 43.1
43.8 / 42.2
Free Throw %
2256.0 / 2329.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
14.5 / 12.8
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
2.7 / 2.5
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
5.7 / 4.9
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
ATL
IND
ATL
ML
48%
47-50
50%
52-52
54%
45-38
55%
48-40
ATS
59%
57-40
53%
55-48-1
54%
45-38
55%
48-40
TTL
54%
52-45
53%
55-48-1
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
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