TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
1-4 | Road
112
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
3-2 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
RAPTORS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-7 points
24.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
13.7%
CLE By 1-7 points
26.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Cleveland
116
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Toronto
108
TORONTO
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.4% more
Cleveland: 1.7
vs
Toronto: 1.2
Steals (L5)
+16.4% more
Cleveland: 3.5
vs
Toronto: 3.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.4%
Cleveland: 40.4%
vs
Toronto: 27.0%
Rebounding (L5)
+20.2% more
Toronto: 14.1
vs
Cleveland: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
115.0
112
CLE Score
116.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 27.0
41.3 / 24.0
Assists
8.0 / 8.6
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
1.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 54.0
46.5 / 56.8
Free Throw %
2091.0 / 2273.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
11.2 / 14.1
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
3.5 / 3.0
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
5.0 / 4.8
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
60%
69-46
55%
57-47
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
ATS
67%
75-37-3
61%
62-40-2
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
62-42
100%
99-0
100%
87-0
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