LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
3-2 | Road
117
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
3-2 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
LAKERS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
LAL By 1-7 points
16.9%
LAL By 8-14 points
6.8%
MEM By 1-7 points
26.8%
MEM By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
112
LOS ANGELES
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
108
LOS ANGELES
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u237.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
MEM @ LAL
114 - 120
Jan 2, 2026
MEM @ LAL
121 - 128
Oct 31, 2025
LAL @ MEM
117 - 112
Mar 29, 2025
LAL @ MEM
134 - 127
Dec 15, 2024
MEM @ LAL
110 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.9% more
Memphis: 1.8
vs
Los Angeles: 1.3
Steals (L5)
+11.5% more
Memphis: 2.1
vs
Los Angeles: 1.9
Turnovers (L5)
+9.9% more
Memphis: 5.5
vs
Los Angeles: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Memphis: 30.3%
vs
Los Angeles: 27.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
112.0
117
MEM Score
118.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 27.7
29.7 / 25.0
Assists
7.5 / 7.0
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
1.8 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 53.5
51.2 / 54.5
Free Throw %
2435.0 / 2227.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
12.1 / 12.2
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
2.1 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
5.5 / 5.0
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
LAL
MEM
LAL
ML
57%
59-44
61%
68-43
50%
41-41
54%
49-42
ATS
63%
65-38
61%
67-43-1
50%
41-41
54%
49-42
TTL
70%
71-31-1
61%
66-43-2
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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