Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Trail Blazers DEN @ POR

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

3-1  |  Road

107
FINAL
Fri, Oct 31 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

3-2  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
NUGGETS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

95.5%

Trail Blazers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

12.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

23.0%

POR By 1-7 points

3.3%

POR By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
118
DENVER
101
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
108
DENVER
124
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u238.0 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u238.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 POR @ DEN 132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026 POR @ DEN 112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026 DEN @ POR 157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025 DEN @ POR 107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025 DEN @ POR 109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +10.6%
Denver: 52.3% vs Portland: 41.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Denver: 38.5% vs Portland: 32.6%
Steals (L5) +38.7% more
Portland: 3.3 vs Denver: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +17.2% more
Portland: 5.4 vs Denver: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 118.0 107
POR Score 101.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 38.5 31.0 / 40.0
Assists 7.8 / 7.9 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 1.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 52.3 40.0 / 53.7
Free Throw % 2412.0 / 2479.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 12.9 / 12.7 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 3.3 / 2.4 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 5.4 / 4.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DEN
POR
DEN
ML
53% 56-49
54% 57-48
55% 49-40
55% 47-39
ATS
62% 65-39-1
63% 65-38-2
55% 49-40
55% 47-39
TTL
56% 58-46-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 89-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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