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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

1-3  |  Road

108
FINAL
Thu, Oct 30 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

5-0  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
WIZARDS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

46.0%

Thunder Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

WSH By 1-7 points

24.3%

WSH By 8-14 points

13.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
WASHINGTON
76
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
WASHINGTON
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.0 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 OKC @ WSH 132 - 111
Oct 30, 2025 WSH @ OKC 108 - 127
Jan 12, 2025 OKC @ WSH 136 - 95
Dec 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 105 - 123
Feb 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 106 - 147
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.1% more
Washington: 2.6 vs Oklahoma City: 1.2
Assists (L5) +38.2% more
Washington: 11.0 vs Oklahoma City: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +38.0% more
Washington: 7.2 vs Oklahoma City: 4.4
Rebounding (L5) +36.9% more
Washington: 22.2 vs Oklahoma City: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 75.0 108
OKC Score 76.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.6 / 38.8 26.4 / 40.5
Assists 6.8 / 11.0 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 1.2 / 2.6 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 46.0 44.7 / 46.9
Free Throw % 2436.0 / 3074.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 14.0 / 22.2 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 3.1 / 3.3 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 4.4 / 7.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
WSH
OKC
WSH
ML
70% 80-34
70% 112-49
48% 46-49
47% 39-44
ATS
73% 83-30-1
69% 111-49-1
48% 46-49
47% 39-44
TTL
67% 76-38
74% 119-41-1
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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