PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
7-2-2 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
3-5-3 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D@
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 3.01 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.01
--
Save %
0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
WILD
0%
PENGUINS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
MIN By 1 goal
19.7%
MIN By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wild
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wild (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Wild (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PIT
5 - 0
Oct 30, 2025
PIT @ MIN
4 - 1
Mar 9, 2025
PIT @ MIN
3 - 1
Oct 29, 2024
MIN @ PIT
5 - 3
Feb 9, 2024
PIT @ MIN
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+66.7% more
Minnesota: 24.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 14.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+25.3% more
Minnesota: 32.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 25.9
Power Play % (L5)
+6.4%
Minnesota: 25.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 19.4%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.8% more
Pittsburgh: 16.3
vs
Minnesota: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
4
MIN Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.6 / 16.3
9.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
48.9 / 49.6
37.3 / 62.7
Hits
24.3 / 14.6
23.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
25.7 / 19.4
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
32.4 / 25.9
27.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 4.5
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PIT
MIN
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
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