DALLAS
STARSDAL
6-3-1 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
4-4-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 1.93 | 0.939 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 0.96 | 0.952 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.93
GAA
Ldr 0.96
0.939
Save %
Ldr 0.952
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
STARS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
DAL By 1 goal
12.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
TB @ DAL
4 - 1
Oct 30, 2025
DAL @ TB
1 - 2
Mar 20, 2025
TB @ DAL
3 - 2
Nov 23, 2024
DAL @ TB
4 - 2
Dec 4, 2023
DAL @ TB
0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.0% more
Tampa Bay: 29.7
vs
Dallas: 25.6
Takeaways (L5)
+30.2% more
Dallas: 4.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.3
Hits (L5)
+29.9% more
Dallas: 25.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.1
Blocked Shots (L5)
+23.9% more
Dallas: 18.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.0
1
TB Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 18.5
15.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
44.6 / 51.5
43.5 / 56.5
Hits
18.1 / 25.8
21.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
7.7 / 28.1
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.7 / 25.6
33.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 4.7
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DAL
TB
DAL
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
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