BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
4-4-2 | Road
3
BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
5-7-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Nikita Zadorov
#91 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 3.90 | 0.818 | -- |
| Nikita Zadorov | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.90
GAA
--
0.818
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
BRUINS
0%
SABRES
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BOS By 1 goal
19.7%
BOS By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Boston
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 1, 2026
BUF @ BOS
4 - 1
Apr 28, 2026
BOS @ BUF
2 - 1
Apr 26, 2026
BUF @ BOS
6 - 1
Apr 23, 2026
BUF @ BOS
3 - 1
Apr 21, 2026
BOS @ BUF
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+52.0% more
Boston: 24.2
vs
Buffalo: 15.9
Takeaways (L5)
+21.8% more
Boston: 5.3
vs
Buffalo: 4.4
Power Play % (L5)
+17.5%
Boston: 30.2%
vs
Buffalo: 12.7%
Faceoff % (L5)
+12.4%
Boston: 53.3%
vs
Buffalo: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
3
BOS Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.4 / 17.7
7.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
53.3 / 40.9
56.7 / 43.3
Hits
24.2 / 15.9
12.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
30.2 / 12.7
25.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
25.7 / 32.0
22.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 4.4
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BUF
BOS
BUF
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
TTL
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Bruins Look to Fix Special Teams as Senators Come to Town
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
Kaprizov's Two Goals Propel Wild Past Bruins 4-1
Wild Aim to Stay Perfect at Home Against Bruins; Newcomers Shine…
Peterka's Overtime Heroics Lift Bruins Over Jets in Season Opener