Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Cowboys ARI @ DAL

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

2-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 8:15 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-4-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Jay Toia
KEY GAME

Jay Toia

#-- | Defensive Tackle
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Jay Toia None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
CARDINALS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Dallas)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

38.8%

Cowboys Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

ARI By 1-6 points

14.7%

ARI By 7-13 points

12.1%

DAL By 1-6 points

17.0%

DAL By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23
ARIZONA
27
DALLAS
Simulated Score
27
ARIZONA
17
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 ARI @ DAL 27 - 17
Sep 24, 2023 DAL @ ARI 16 - 28
Jan 2, 2022 ARI @ DAL 25 - 22
Oct 19, 2020 ARI @ DAL 38 - 10
Sep 25, 2017 DAL @ ARI 28 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.6% more
Dallas: 5.8 vs Arizona: 5.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Dallas: 251.0 vs Arizona: 229.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.7% more
Dallas: 367.4 vs Arizona: 337.9
Turnovers (L5) +27.7% more
Arizona: 1.3 vs Dallas: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 23.0 27
DAL Score 27.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 21.1 22.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 251.0 / 229.8 210.0 / 221.0
Rushing Yards 116.4 / 108.0 123.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 367.4 / 337.9 333.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.3 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.1 5.1 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
ARI
DAL
ARI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
67% 2-1-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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