Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Texans DEN @ HOU

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

6-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Nov 2 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

3-4  |  Home

15
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
TEXANS
100%
BRONCOS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

58.5%

Texans Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

17.5%

HOU By 1-6 points

15.3%

HOU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DENVER
24
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
23
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o42.0 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u42.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 DEN @ HOU 18 - 15
Dec 3, 2023 DEN @ HOU 17 - 22
Sep 18, 2022 HOU @ DEN 9 - 16
Dec 8, 2019 DEN @ HOU 38 - 24
Nov 4, 2018 HOU @ DEN 19 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Denver: 143.7 vs Houston: 123.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.8% more
Denver: 6.0 vs Houston: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +21.0% more
Houston: 0.9 vs Denver: 0.7
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Denver: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 27.0 18
HOU Score 24.0 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 22.1 15.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 245.3 / 234.3 191.0 / 171.0
Rushing Yards 123.3 / 143.7 77.0 / 100.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 368.6 / 377.9 268.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 6.0 3.7 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DEN
HOU
DEN
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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