Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Steelers IND @ PIT

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

7-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Nov 2 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

4-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
0%
📊
STEELERS
100%
COLTS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Indianapolis)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

69.1%

Steelers Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IND -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-6 points

16.5%

IND By 7-13 points

19.3%

PIT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
17
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colts Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 IND @ PIT 20 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 PIT @ IND 24 - 27
Dec 16, 2023 PIT @ IND 13 - 30
Nov 28, 2022 PIT @ IND 24 - 17
Dec 27, 2020 IND @ PIT 24 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.3% more
Indianapolis: 139.4 vs Pittsburgh: 105.5
First Downs (L5) +23.0% more
Indianapolis: 22.6 vs Pittsburgh: 17.4
Total Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Indianapolis: 388.4 vs Pittsburgh: 316.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.6% more
Indianapolis: 6.9 vs Pittsburgh: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 24.0 20
PIT Score 17.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 22.6 17.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 210.8 / 249.1 187.0 / 313.0
Rushing Yards 105.5 / 139.4 38.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 316.2 / 388.4 225.0 / 368.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.4 1.0 / 6.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 6.9 3.7 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
IND
PIT
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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