Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Rams NO @ LAR

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-7  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Nov 2 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

5-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Bryan Bresee
KEY GAME

Bryan Bresee

#90 | Defensive Tackle
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Bryan Bresee None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
RAMS
100%
SAINTS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 RamsLAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

41.5%

Rams Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAR +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

NO By 1-6 points

17.0%

NO By 7-13 points

17.5%

LAR By 1-6 points

15.3%

LAR By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
17
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
24
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+14) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ LAR 10 - 34
Dec 1, 2024 LAR @ NO 21 - 14
Dec 21, 2023 NO @ LAR 22 - 30
Nov 20, 2022 LAR @ NO 20 - 27
Sep 15, 2019 NO @ LAR 9 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.2% more
New Orleans: 2.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
New Orleans: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.6% more
Los Angeles: 92.9 vs New Orleans: 70.0
First Downs (L5) +27.2% more
Los Angeles: 22.3 vs New Orleans: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 20.0 10
LAR Score 17.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 17.6 30.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 235.8 / 212.6 267.0 / 167.0
Rushing Yards 92.9 / 70.0 171.0 / 57.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.73 / 0.27
Total Yards 328.7 / 282.6 438.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.6 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 4.7 5.7 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
NO
LAR
NO
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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