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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

4-3  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Nov 2 • 4:05 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-5  |  Home

29
Key Game
Jakobi Meyers
KEY GAME

Jakobi Meyers

#3 | Wide Receiver
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Jakobi Meyers None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
JAGUARS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Jacksonville)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

88.8%

Raiders Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

10.7%

JAX By 7-13 points

17.5%

LV By 1-6 points

5.9%

LV By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
27
JACKSONVILLE
10
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
24
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 JAX @ LV 30 - 29
Dec 22, 2024 JAX @ LV 14 - 19
Nov 6, 2022 LV @ JAX 20 - 27
Dec 15, 2019 JAX @ LV 20 - 16
Oct 23, 2016 LV @ JAX 33 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +35.9% more
Jacksonville: 226.4 vs Las Vegas: 145.1
First Downs (L5) +32.9% more
Jacksonville: 19.3 vs Las Vegas: 13.0
Total Yards (L5) +31.4% more
Jacksonville: 325.6 vs Las Vegas: 223.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.0% more
Jacksonville: 99.2 vs Las Vegas: 78.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 27.0 30
LV Score 10.0 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.0 / 19.3 26.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 145.1 / 226.4 274.0 / 216.0
Rushing Yards 78.4 / 99.2 57.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.7 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 223.4 / 325.6 331.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.3 / 4.9 5.5 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
JAX
LV
JAX
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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