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KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

5-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Nov 2 • 4:25 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

5-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Ray Davis
KEY GAME

Ray Davis

#7 | Running Back
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Ray Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
0%
📊
BILLS
100%
CHIEFS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

69.1%

Bills Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.5%

KC By 7-13 points

19.3%

BUF By 1-6 points

12.9%

BUF By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24
KANSAS CITY
17
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS CITY
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 KC @ BUF 21 - 28
Jan 26, 2025 BUF @ KC 29 - 32
Nov 17, 2024 KC @ BUF 21 - 30
Jan 21, 2024 KC @ BUF 27 - 24
Dec 10, 2023 BUF @ KC 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.5% more
Kansas City: 269.0 vs Buffalo: 189.6
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
Kansas City: 25.8 vs Buffalo: 21.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Kansas City: 405.1 vs Buffalo: 367.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.4% more
Buffalo: 177.5 vs Kansas City: 136.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 24.0 21
BUF Score 17.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 25.8 23.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 189.6 / 269.0 263.0 / 226.0
Rushing Yards 177.5 / 136.1 141.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 367.1 / 405.1 404.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 6.0 6.3 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
KC
BUF
KC
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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