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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

2-2  |  Road

114
FINAL
Wed, Oct 29 • 10:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

1-3  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

100.0%

Suns Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

0.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.8%

PHX By 1-7 points

0.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
111
MEMPHIS
73
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
107
MEMPHIS
112
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 PHX @ MEM 131 - 105
Jan 7, 2026 PHX @ MEM 117 - 98
Oct 29, 2025 MEM @ PHX 114 - 113
Mar 10, 2025 PHX @ MEM 118 - 120
Feb 25, 2025 PHX @ MEM 148 - 151
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Memphis: 8.2 vs Phoenix: 7.2
Blocks (L5) +9.5% more
Memphis: 2.6 vs Phoenix: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Memphis: 36.5% vs Phoenix: 30.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Memphis: 47.7% vs Phoenix: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 111.0 114
PHX Score 73.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 30.6 29.4 / 29.7
Assists 11.1 / 11.3 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.6 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 47.7 47.4 / 51.2
Free Throw % 3089.0 / 3652.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 18.5 / 18.2 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 4.8 / 3.2 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 7.2 / 8.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MEM
PHX
MEM
ML
57% 60-45
57% 59-44
51% 45-43
50% 41-41
ATS
58% 59-43-3
63% 65-38
51% 45-43
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 61-42-2
70% 71-31-1
100% 88-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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