Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Mavericks IND @ DAL

INDIANA

PACERSIND

0-3  |  Road

105
FINAL
Wed, Oct 29 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

1-3  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
PACERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

30.9%

Mavericks Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

IND By 1-7 points

27.2%

IND By 8-14 points

23.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
INDIANA
70
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
INDIANA
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+6) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 DAL @ IND 134 - 130
Oct 29, 2025 IND @ DAL 105 - 107
Mar 19, 2025 DAL @ IND 131 - 135
Nov 4, 2024 IND @ DAL 134 - 127
Mar 5, 2024 IND @ DAL 137 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Indiana: 8.6 vs Dallas: 7.5
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Indiana: 44.5% vs Dallas: 40.1%
Blocks (L5) +17.8% more
Dallas: 2.4 vs Indiana: 2.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Dallas: 38.6% vs Indiana: 32.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 75.0 105
DAL Score 70.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 32.6 42.9 / 30.2
Assists 11.2 / 10.8 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.0 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.1 / 44.5 37.3 / 43.8
Free Throw % 3482.0 / 3383.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 20.2 / 21.7 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 4.1 / 4.1 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 7.5 / 8.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
IND
DAL
IND
ML
62% 63-39
48% 47-50
54% 44-37
54% 45-38
ATS
67% 68-34
59% 57-40
54% 44-37
54% 45-38
TTL
59% 60-41-1
54% 52-45
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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