Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Nuggets NO @ DEN

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

0-3  |  Road

88
FINAL
Wed, Oct 29 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

2-1  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
PELICANS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Denver)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

30.9%

Nuggets Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

NO By 1-7 points

18.6%

NO By 8-14 points

8.0%

DEN By 1-7 points

27.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106
NEW ORLEANS
111
DENVER
Simulated Score
112
NEW ORLEANS
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 DEN @ NO 122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025 DEN @ NO 125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025 NO @ DEN 88 - 122
Feb 5, 2025 NO @ DEN 119 - 144
Feb 3, 2025 NO @ DEN 113 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Denver: 51.6% vs New Orleans: 45.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Denver: 37.8% vs New Orleans: 33.1%
Steals (L5) +40.5% more
New Orleans: 5.9 vs Denver: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +37.0% more
New Orleans: 30.2 vs Denver: 19.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 106.0 88
DEN Score 111.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 33.1 40.0 / 37.0
Assists 11.9 / 15.4 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.2 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 51.6 / 45.4 53.7 / 45.9
Free Throw % 3718.0 / 5202.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 19.0 / 30.2 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 3.5 / 5.9 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 6.9 / 10.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
NO
DEN
NO
ML
54% 57-48
62% 98-61
55% 47-39
58% 48-35
ATS
63% 65-38-2
68% 107-51-1
55% 47-39
58% 48-35
TTL
54% 56-48-1
75% 119-40
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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