ORLANDO
MAGICORL
1-3 | Road
116
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
2-2 | Home
135
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
PISTONS
0%
MAGIC
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
ORL By 1-7 points
0.1%
ORL By 8-14 points
0.0%
DET By 1-7 points
0.8%
DET By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
75
ORLANDO
Detroit
106
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (+2)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Magic (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u227.0
Loss
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim
u227.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
ORL @ DET
94 - 116
May 1, 2026
DET @ ORL
93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026
ORL @ DET
109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026
DET @ ORL
88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ ORL
105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+69.5% more
Detroit: 4.1
vs
Orlando: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+17.7% more
Detroit: 3.9
vs
Orlando: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+15.2% more
Detroit: 12.1
vs
Orlando: 10.5
Turnovers (L5)
+11.2% more
Orlando: 8.1
vs
Detroit: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
75.0
116
DET Score
106.0
135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 37.6
29.2 / 40.0
Assists
12.1 / 10.5
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.4
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 46.9
44.3 / 46.7
Free Throw %
3103.0 / 3364.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
20.1 / 20.7
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
3.9 / 3.3
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
7.2 / 8.1
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ORL
DET
ORL
ML
55%
64-53
61%
65-42
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
64%
68-38-1
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
57%
61-46
100%
96-0
100%
91-0
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