CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
3-1 | Road
105
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
1-3 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
CELTICS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CLE By 1-7 points
0.0%
CLE By 8-14 points
0.0%
BOS By 1-7 points
0.5%
BOS By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
73
CLEVELAND
Boston
106
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
109
CLEVELAND
Boston
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+2)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
BOS @ CLE
109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025
BOS @ CLE
117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025
CLE @ BOS
105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025
CLE @ BOS
107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025
CLE @ BOS
123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.1% more
Boston: 3.0
vs
Cleveland: 2.5
Rebounding (L5)
+17.1% more
Boston: 19.7
vs
Cleveland: 16.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Boston: 35.0%
vs
Cleveland: 31.4%
Assists (L5)
+24.4% more
Cleveland: 12.1
vs
Boston: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
73.0
105
BOS Score
106.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 40.0
25.6 / 41.3
Assists
9.1 / 12.1
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.5
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 46.8
45.1 / 46.5
Free Throw %
3496.0 / 3136.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
19.7 / 16.9
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
4.1 / 5.3
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
7.2 / 7.5
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
57%
61-46
60%
69-46
53%
47-41
56%
55-44
ATS
59%
61-43-3
67%
75-37-3
53%
47-41
56%
55-44
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
68-47
100%
88-0
100%
99-0
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