CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
2-1 | Road
117
MIAMI
HEATMIA
2-1 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
HEAT
100%
HORNETS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
CHA By 1-7 points
27.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
23.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
106
CHARLOTTE
Miami
101
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Charlotte
105
CHARLOTTE
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u240.5
Loss
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Charlotte: 44.2%
vs
Miami: 35.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Charlotte: 51.1%
vs
Miami: 47.4%
Steals (L5)
+132.3% more
Miami: 6.9
vs
Charlotte: 3.0
Blocks (L5)
+72.5% more
Miami: 2.9
vs
Charlotte: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
106.0
117
MIA Score
101.0
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 44.2
34.3 / 47.2
Assists
18.1 / 13.0
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
2.9 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 51.1
48.4 / 53.3
Free Throw %
5121.0 / 3173.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 22.8
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
6.9 / 3.0
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 8.0
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHA
MIA
CHA
ML
48%
46-50
61%
60-39
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
ATS
51%
49-47
60%
59-40
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
57-39
58%
57-42
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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