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SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

1-2  |  Road

101
FINAL
Tue, Oct 28 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

4-0  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
KINGS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Oklahoma City)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

0.0%

Thunder Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

SAC By 1-7 points

0.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.0%

OKC By 1-7 points

0.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
75
SACRAMENTO
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
115
SACRAMENTO
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-9) Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 SAC @ OKC 99 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 OKC @ SAC 132 - 101
Oct 28, 2025 SAC @ OKC 101 - 107
Mar 25, 2025 OKC @ SAC 121 - 105
Feb 1, 2025 SAC @ OKC 110 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.5% more
Sacramento: 3.5 vs Oklahoma City: 1.9
Assists (L5) +33.9% more
Sacramento: 15.5 vs Oklahoma City: 10.2
Turnovers (L5) +29.6% more
Sacramento: 9.4 vs Oklahoma City: 6.6
Steals (L5) +21.7% more
Sacramento: 6.0 vs Oklahoma City: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 75.0 101
OKC Score 111.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.2 / 36.8 26.4 / 37.5
Assists 10.2 / 15.5 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 1.9 / 3.5 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 48.5 44.7 / 50.0
Free Throw % 3654.0 / 4799.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 21.0 / 25.8 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 4.7 / 6.0 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 6.6 / 9.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SAC
OKC
SAC
ML
70% 80-34
55% 55-45
48% 46-49
61% 50-32
ATS
73% 83-30-1
54% 52-45-3
48% 46-49
61% 50-32
TTL
67% 76-38
58% 57-42-1
100% 95-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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