TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
3-4-2 | Road
5
NASHVILLE
PREDATORSNSH
4-4-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Juuse Saros
#74 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.01 | 0.900 | -- |
| Juuse Saros | None-None | 4.17 | 0.871 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01 Ldr
GAA
4.17
0.900 Ldr
Save %
0.871
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
PREDATORS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
PREDATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NASHVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Nashville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NSH)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
NSH By 1 goal
19.7%
NSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Nashville
3
NASHVILLE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Nashville
3
NASHVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Predators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Predators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Predators (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Predators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
NSH @ TB
2 - 3
Oct 28, 2025
TB @ NSH
5 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
NSH @ TB
1 - 4
Sep 23, 2025
TB @ NSH
3 - 2
Nov 29, 2024
TB @ NSH
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+72.5% more
Nashville: 5.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.4
Hits (L5)
+20.8% more
Nashville: 23.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 19.2
Power Play % (L5)
+7.9%
Nashville: 19.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.6%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.4%
Nashville: 52.4%
vs
Tampa Bay: 50.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
2.0
5
NSH Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.3 / 13.6
5.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
52.4 / 50.0
66.1 / 33.9
Hits
23.1 / 19.2
24.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
19.5 / 11.6
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 28.6
20.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
5.9 / 3.4
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NSH
TB
NSH
TB
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
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