Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ Texas VAN @ TEX

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

7-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

6-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Dontae Carter
KEY GAME

Dontae Carter

#1 | Safety
@
Nick Townsend
KEY GAME

Nick Townsend

#81 | Tight End
Player
Dontae Carter None-None
Nick Townsend None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
0%
📊
TEXAS
100%
VANDERBILT --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Vanderbilt)
VanderbiltVAN (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

61.2%

Texas Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VAN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1-6 points

17.0%

VAN By 7-13 points

18.0%

TEX By 1-6 points

14.7%

TEX By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
VANDERBILT
20
TEXAS
Simulated Score
38
VANDERBILT
17
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Vanderbilt Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Vanderbilt (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 VAN @ TEX 31 - 34
Oct 26, 2024 TEX @ VAN 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.4% more
Vanderbilt: 182.1 vs Texas: 99.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.9 vs Texas: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Vanderbilt: 19.0 vs Texas: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 24.0 31
TEX Score 20.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 19.0 23.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 99.4 / 182.1 100.0 / 58.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 351.5 / 370.6 428.0 / 423.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
VAN
TEX
VAN
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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