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UAB

UABUAB

3-4  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCONN

UCONNCONN

5-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
@
Kylish Hicks
KEY GAME

Kylish Hicks

#18 | Linebacker
Player
Jonah Delange None-None
Kylish Hicks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
100%
📊
UCONN
0%
UAB --
UCONN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UConn)
UABUAB (-3.5) 0 UConnCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

30.9%

UConn Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CONN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

UAB By 1-6 points

12.9%

UAB By 7-13 points

9.6%

CONN By 1-6 points

16.5%

CONN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
UAB
38
UCONN
Simulated Score
31
UAB
17
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UConn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UAB Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UConn (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim UAB (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 UAB @ CONN 19 - 38
Nov 9, 2024 CONN @ UAB 31 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
UConn: 449.0 vs UAB: 407.1
Turnovers (L5) +87.7% more
UAB: 1.5 vs UConn: 0.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
UAB: 0.5 vs UConn: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.4% more
UAB: 21.5 vs UConn: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 31.0 19
CONN Score 38.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 21.5 20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 133.2 / 130.4 107.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 449.0 / 407.1 374.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.5 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
UAB
CONN
UAB
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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