Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ Clemson DUKE @ CLEM

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

4-3  |  Road

46
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

3-4  |  Home

45
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Nolan Hauser
KEY GAME

Nolan Hauser

#81 | Place kicker
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Nolan Hauser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
0%
📊
CLEMSON
100%
DUKE --
CLEMSON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Duke)
DukeDUKE (-3.5) 0 ClemsonCLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

69.1%

Clemson Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DUKE -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

DUKE By 1-6 points

16.5%

DUKE By 7-13 points

19.3%

CLEM By 1-6 points

12.9%

CLEM By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
DUKE
24
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
31
DUKE
17
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Duke Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Duke Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Duke (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Duke (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 DUKE @ CLEM 46 - 45
Sep 4, 2023 CLEM @ DUKE 7 - 28
Nov 17, 2018 DUKE @ CLEM 6 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.7% more
Duke: 133.2 vs Clemson: 113.6
Turnovers (L5) +90.0% more
Clemson: 1.7 vs Duke: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 31.0 46
CLEM Score 24.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 23.9 28.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 113.6 / 133.2 175.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 421.9 / 445.1 560.0 / 439.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
CLEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
CLEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
DUKE
CLEM
DUKE
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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