Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCF @ Baylor UCF @ BAY

UCF

UCFUCF

4-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

4-4  |  Home

30
Key Game
Jeffson Lafontant
KEY GAME

Jeffson Lafontant

#92 | Defensive Tackle
@
Trent Thomas
KEY GAME

Trent Thomas

#92 | Defensive End
Player
Jeffson Lafontant None-None
Trent Thomas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
0%
📊
BAYLOR
100%
UCF --
BAYLOR --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UCF)
UCFUCF (-3.5) 0 BaylorBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCF Cover

82.3%

Baylor Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UCF -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

UCF By 1-6 points

13.5%

UCF By 7-13 points

19.3%

BAY By 1-6 points

8.6%

BAY By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
41
UCF
28
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
30
UCF
27
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UCF Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UCF Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UCF (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim UCF (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u58.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 UCF @ BAY 3 - 30
Sep 30, 2023 BAY @ UCF 36 - 35
Jan 1, 2014 UCF @ BAY 52 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.6% more
UCF: 217.0 vs Baylor: 135.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.3% more
UCF: 464.3 vs Baylor: 402.7
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
UCF: 0.6 vs Baylor: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +59.6% more
Baylor: 2.3 vs UCF: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 41.0 3
BAY Score 28.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 21.6 24.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 135.4 / 217.0 150.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 402.7 / 464.3 417.0 / 225.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
BAY
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
UCF
BAY
UCF
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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