Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ Houston WVU @ HOU

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

2-6  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

7-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Corey McIntyre Jr.
KEY GAME

Corey McIntyre Jr.

#52 | Defensive Lineman
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Corey McIntyre Jr. None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
100%
📊
HOUSTON
0%
WEST VIRGINIA --
HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Houston)
West VirginiaWVU (-3.5) 0 HoustonHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

1.3%

Houston Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

WVU By 1-6 points

0.9%

WVU By 7-13 points

0.3%

HOU By 1-6 points

2.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
10
WEST VIRGINIA
41
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
WEST VIRGINIA
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Houston Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Houston Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Houston (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Houston (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 WVU @ HOU 45 - 35
Oct 12, 2023 WVU @ HOU 39 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Houston: 176.2 vs West Virginia: 128.5
Total Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Houston: 385.0 vs West Virginia: 314.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs West Virginia: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Houston: 21.3 vs West Virginia: 18.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 10.0 45
HOU Score 41.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 18.8 26.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 176.2 / 128.5 82.0 / 246.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 385.0 / 314.8 400.0 / 403.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.9 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
WVU
HOU
WVU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
80% 4-1
0% 0-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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