Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ Bowling Green BUFF @ BGSU

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

4-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

3-5  |  Home

3
Key Game
Mikey Crawford
KEY GAME

Mikey Crawford

#5 | Cornerback
@
Eriq George
KEY GAME

Eriq George

#5 | Defensive End
Player
Mikey Crawford None-None
Eriq George None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
100%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
0%
BUFFALO --
BOWLING GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Bowling Green)
BuffaloBUFF (-3.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

38.8%

Bowling Green Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BGSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

BUFF By 1-6 points

14.7%

BUFF By 7-13 points

12.1%

BGSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

BGSU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BUFFALO
7
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
24
BUFFALO
27
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Bowling Green Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Bowling Green (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 BUFF @ BGSU 28 - 3
Oct 14, 2023 BGSU @ BUFF 24 - 14
Oct 8, 2022 BUFF @ BGSU 38 - 7
Oct 30, 2021 BGSU @ BUFF 56 - 44
Nov 17, 2020 BUFF @ BGSU 42 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.0% more
Bowling Green: 159.8 vs Buffalo: 117.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Bowling Green: 0.4 vs Buffalo: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +48.7% more
Buffalo: 2.2 vs Bowling Green: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +18.9% more
Buffalo: 21.4 vs Bowling Green: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 3.0 28
BGSU Score 7.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 21.4 15.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 159.8 / 117.5 116.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 328.9 / 386.0 216.0 / 282.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
BGSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
BUFF
BGSU
BUFF
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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