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ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

5-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

5-3  |  Home

19
Key Game
Kanyon Floyd
KEY GAME

Kanyon Floyd

#31 | Punter
@
Kyle Konrardy
KEY GAME

Kyle Konrardy

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Kanyon Floyd None-None
Kyle Konrardy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
100%
📊
IOWA STATE
0%
ARIZONA ST --
IOWA STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Iowa State)
Arizona StASU (-3.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

21.6%

Iowa State Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ASU By 1-6 points

10.0%

ASU By 7-13 points

6.6%

ISU By 1-6 points

14.7%

ISU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17
ARIZONA STATE
28
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA STATE
28
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa State (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim Iowa State (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 ASU @ ISU 24 - 19
Dec 7, 2024 ISU @ ASU 19 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +132.0% more
Iowa State: 1.9 vs Arizona State: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.9% more
Iowa State: 179.5 vs Arizona State: 134.0
Total Yards (L5) +11.7% more
Iowa State: 449.0 vs Arizona State: 402.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 17.0 24
ISU Score 28.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 21.5 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 179.5 / 134.0 150.0 / 290.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.14 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 449.0 / 402.1 336.0 / 467.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
ISU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
ASU
ISU
ASU
ML
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-4
TTL
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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