Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ UNLV UNM @ UNLV

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

5-3  |  Road

40
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

6-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Troy Omeire
KEY GAME

Troy Omeire

#5 | Wide Receiver
@
Quandarius Keyes
KEY GAME

Quandarius Keyes

#5 | Defensive Back
Player
Troy Omeire None-None
Quandarius Keyes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
0%
📊
UNLV
100%
NEW MEXICO --
UNLV --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico)
New MexicoUNM (-3.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

69.1%

UNLV Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-6 points

16.5%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.3%

UNLV By 1-6 points

12.9%

UNLV By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
NEW MEXICO
24
UNLV
Simulated Score
17
NEW MEXICO
31
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UNLV Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI New Mexico (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim UNLV (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 UNM @ UNLV 40 - 35
Nov 4, 2023 UNLV @ UNM 56 - 14
Sep 30, 2022 UNM @ UNLV 20 - 31
Nov 6, 2021 UNLV @ UNM 31 - 17
Oct 6, 2018 UNM @ UNLV 50 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.4% more
New Mexico: 1.5 vs UNLV: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.2% more
UNLV: 218.4 vs New Mexico: 177.2
Total Yards (L5) +22.0% more
UNLV: 458.0 vs New Mexico: 375.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 31.0 40
UNLV Score 24.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 21.0 25.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 218.4 / 177.2 88.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 458.0 / 375.5 470.0 / 532.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
UNM
UNLV
UNM
ML
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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