Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ Boise St FRES @ BOIS

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

5-3  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

6-2  |  Home

7
Key Game
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
100%
📊
BOISE ST
0%
FRESNO ST --
BOISE ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Boise State)
Fresno StFRES (-3.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

9.9%

Boise St Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BOIS -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

FRES By 1-6 points

5.3%

FRES By 7-13 points

2.8%

BOIS By 1-6 points

10.0%

BOIS By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
13
FRESNO STATE
31
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
27
FRESNO STATE
31
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boise St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boise St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boise St (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Boise St (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 FRES @ BOIS 30 - 7
Nov 4, 2023 BOIS @ FRES 30 - 37
Dec 3, 2022 FRES @ BOIS 28 - 16
Oct 8, 2022 FRES @ BOIS 20 - 40
Nov 6, 2021 BOIS @ FRES 40 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.1% more
Boise State: 185.3 vs Fresno State: 109.0
Total Yards (L5) +22.7% more
Boise State: 416.2 vs Fresno State: 339.3
First Downs (L5) +16.0% more
Boise State: 22.4 vs Fresno State: 19.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Boise State: 0.5 vs Fresno State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 13.0 30
BOIS Score 31.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 19.3 11.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 185.3 / 109.0 91.0 / 189.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 416.2 / 339.3 193.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.1 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
BOIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
FRES
BOIS
FRES
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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