Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Western KY NMSU @ WKU

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-4  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

6-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Raylon Carter
KEY GAME

Raylon Carter

#17 | Defensive Lineman
@
👤
KEY GAME

Elin Jones

#50 | Defensive End
Player
Raylon Carter None-None
Elin Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
100%
📊
WESTERN KY
0%
NEW MEXICO ST --
WESTERN KY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Western Kentucky)
New Mexico StNMSU (-3.5) 0 Western KYWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

9.9%

Western KY Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

NMSU By 1-6 points

5.3%

NMSU By 7-13 points

2.8%

WKU By 1-6 points

10.0%

WKU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW MEXICO STATE
38
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
24
NEW MEXICO STATE
31
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Western KY Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Western KY Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Western KY (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Western KY (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 WKU @ NMSU 13 - 34
Nov 1, 2025 NMSU @ WKU 16 - 35
Nov 9, 2024 WKU @ NMSU 41 - 28
Nov 11, 2023 NMSU @ WKU 38 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.1% more
Western Kentucky: 117.0 vs New Mexico State: 92.1
Total Yards (L5) +10.2% more
Western Kentucky: 363.7 vs New Mexico State: 330.1
Turnovers (L5) +38.2% more
New Mexico State: 2.4 vs Western Kentucky: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 20.0 16
WKU Score 38.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 19.9 24.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 117.0 / 92.1 128.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 363.7 / 330.1 429.0 / 178.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
NMSU
WKU
NMSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
ATS
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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