Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan St @ Minnesota MSU @ MINN

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

5-3  |  Home

23
Key Game
Jay Coyne
KEY GAME

Jay Coyne

#44 | Fullback
@
Matt Kingsbury
KEY GAME

Matt Kingsbury

#49 | Linebacker
Player
Jay Coyne None-None
Matt Kingsbury None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
0%
📊
MINNESOTA
100%
MICHIGAN ST --
MINNESOTA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Michigan State)
Michigan StMSU (-3.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

76.2%

Minnesota Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

MSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

MSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

MINN By 1-6 points

10.7%

MINN By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MICHIGAN STATE
14
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
MICHIGAN STATE
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Michigan St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Minnesota Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Michigan St (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Minnesota (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 MSU @ MINN 20 - 23
Oct 28, 2023 MSU @ MINN 12 - 27
Sep 24, 2022 MINN @ MSU 34 - 7
Oct 14, 2017 MSU @ MINN 30 - 27
Nov 30, 2013 MINN @ MSU 3 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +20.8% more
Michigan State: 315.1 vs Minnesota: 249.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.8% more
Michigan State: 102.8 vs Minnesota: 84.5
First Downs (L5) +15.6% more
Michigan State: 18.0 vs Minnesota: 15.2
Turnovers (L5) +41.0% more
Minnesota: 1.3 vs Michigan State: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 24.0 20
MINN Score 14.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 18.0 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 84.5 / 102.8 104.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 249.6 / 315.1 301.0 / 467.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
MSU
MINN
MSU
ML
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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