Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Michigan @ W Michigan CMU @ WMU

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

5-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 4:00 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

4-4  |  Home

24
Key Game
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Declan Duley None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
0%
📊
W MICHIGAN
100%
C MICHIGAN --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Central Michigan)
C MichiganCMU (-3.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

76.2%

W Michigan Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CMU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

CMU By 1-6 points

15.3%

CMU By 7-13 points

19.7%

WMU By 1-6 points

10.7%

WMU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
10
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
27
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI C Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim W Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI C Michigan (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim W Michigan (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 30.0
C
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 CMU @ WMU 21 - 24
Nov 19, 2024 WMU @ CMU 14 - 16
Nov 7, 2023 CMU @ WMU 28 - 38
Nov 16, 2022 WMU @ CMU 12 - 10
Nov 3, 2021 CMU @ WMU 42 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.5% more
Central Michigan: 233.6 vs Western Michigan: 174.0
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Central Michigan: 390.7 vs Western Michigan: 354.9
Turnovers (L5) +86.0% more
Western Michigan: 1.5 vs Central Michigan: 0.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Western Michigan: 0.5 vs Central Michigan: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 20.0 21
WMU Score 10.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 19.2 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 174.0 / 233.6 177.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 354.9 / 390.7 327.0 / 240.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
WMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
CMU
WMU
CMU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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