Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ Colorado ARIZ @ COLO

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

4-3  |  Road

52
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Folsom Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

3-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
@
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
Player
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
Damon Greaves None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
0%
📊
COLORADO
100%
ARIZONA --
COLORADO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Arizona)
ArizonaARIZ (-3.5) 0 ColoradoCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

84.1%

Colorado Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

12.9%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.0%

COLO By 1-6 points

7.9%

COLO By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31
ARIZONA
17
COLORADO
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
31
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Colorado Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arizona (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Colorado (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 ARIZ @ COLO 52 - 17
Oct 19, 2024 COLO @ ARIZ 34 - 7
Nov 11, 2023 ARIZ @ COLO 34 - 31
Oct 1, 2022 COLO @ ARIZ 20 - 43
Oct 16, 2021 ARIZ @ COLO 0 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +28.5% more
Arizona: 22.4 vs Colorado: 16.0
Total Yards (L5) +26.8% more
Arizona: 397.0 vs Colorado: 290.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Arizona: 122.7 vs Colorado: 104.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Colorado: 1.2 vs Arizona: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 31.0 52
COLO Score 17.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.0 / 22.4 16.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 104.5 / 122.7 129.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 290.6 / 397.0 299.0 / 417.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
COLO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
COLO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
ARIZ
COLO
ARIZ
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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