PURDUE
PURDUEPUR
2-6 | Road
16
MICHIGAN
MICHIGANMICH
6-2 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jaden Mangham
#2 | Defensive Back@
KEY GAME
Hudson Hollenbeck
#90 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jaden Mangham | None-None |
| Hudson Hollenbeck | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
100%
MICHIGAN
0%
PURDUE
--
MICHIGAN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MICH -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
PUR By 1-6 points
5.3%
PUR By 7-13 points
2.8%
MICH By 1-6 points
10.0%
MICH By 7-13 points
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
10
PURDUE
Michigan
28
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Purdue
31
PURDUE
Michigan
17
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Michigan
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Purdue
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Michigan (+21)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim
Purdue (-21)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u48.5
Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim
u48.5
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 1, 2025
PUR @ MICH
16 - 21
Nov 4, 2023
PUR @ MICH
13 - 41
Dec 3, 2022
PUR @ MICH
22 - 43
Sep 23, 2017
MICH @ PUR
28 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+33.9% more
Michigan: 216.2
vs
Purdue: 161.5
First Downs (L5)
+15.5% more
Michigan: 20.1
vs
Purdue: 17.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+10.0% more
Michigan: 0.4
vs
Purdue: 0.3
Time of Possession (L5)
+9.0% more
Michigan: 0.5
vs
Purdue: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
10.0
16
MICH Score
28.0
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.1 / 17.4
20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards
216.2 / 161.5
253.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.55 / 0.42
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards
383.9 / 364.4
398.0 / 276.0
Turnovers
0.8 / 2.2
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
MICH
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
MICH
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
PUR
MICH
PUR
ML
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
ATS
80%
4-1
25%
1-3-1
80%
4-1
50%
2-2-1
TTL
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
Contextual Game News
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Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…