Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ Florida St WAKE @ FSU

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

5-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-4  |  Home

42
Key Game
Connor Calvert
KEY GAME

Connor Calvert

#90 | Place kicker
@
Darryll Desir
KEY GAME

Darryll Desir

#1 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Connor Calvert None-None
Darryll Desir None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
100%
📊
FLORIDA ST
0%
WAKE FOREST --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Florida State)
Wake ForestWAKE (-3.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

0.1%

Florida St Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

WAKE By 1-6 points

0.0%

WAKE By 7-13 points

0.0%

FSU By 1-6 points

0.2%

FSU By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WAKE FOREST
48
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
24
WAKE FOREST
31
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Florida St (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Florida St (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 WAKE @ FSU 7 - 42
Oct 28, 2023 FSU @ WAKE 41 - 16
Oct 1, 2022 WAKE @ FSU 31 - 21
Sep 18, 2021 FSU @ WAKE 14 - 35
Oct 19, 2019 FSU @ WAKE 20 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.3% more
Florida State: 189.0 vs Wake Forest: 132.9
First Downs (L5) +34.9% more
Florida State: 23.8 vs Wake Forest: 17.7
Total Yards (L5) +23.9% more
Florida State: 461.2 vs Wake Forest: 372.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Florida State: 0.5 vs Wake Forest: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 3.0 7
FSU Score 48.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 17.7 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 189.0 / 132.9 150.0 / 85.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 461.2 / 372.3 421.0 / 247.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
WAKE
FSU
WAKE
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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