Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma @ Tennessee OU @ TENN

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

6-2  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

6-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Grayson Miller None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA
100%
📊
TENNESSEE
0%
OKLAHOMA --
TENNESSEE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tennessee)
OklahomaOU (-3.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma Cover

38.8%

Tennessee Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TENN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

OU By 1-6 points

14.7%

OU By 7-13 points

12.1%

TENN By 1-6 points

17.0%

TENN By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27
OKLAHOMA
31
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
27
OKLAHOMA
31
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tennessee Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tennessee Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tennessee (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Tennessee (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 OU @ TENN 33 - 27
Sep 21, 2024 TENN @ OU 25 - 15
Sep 12, 2015 OU @ TENN 31 - 24
Sep 13, 2014 TENN @ OU 10 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Tennessee: 478.2 vs Oklahoma: 342.2
First Downs (L5) +38.8% more
Tennessee: 25.0 vs Oklahoma: 18.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.2% more
Tennessee: 161.0 vs Oklahoma: 133.9
Turnovers (L5) +21.2% more
Oklahoma: 1.0 vs Tennessee: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OU Score 27.0 33
TENN Score 31.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.0 / 18.0 28.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 161.0 / 133.9 63.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 478.2 / 342.2 456.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
OU
TENN
OU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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