Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia Tech @ NC State GT @ NCSU

GEORGIA TECH

GEORGIA TECHGT

8-0  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

4-4  |  Home

48
Key Game
Aidan Birr
KEY GAME

Aidan Birr

#33 | Place kicker
@
Chase Bond
KEY GAME

Chase Bond

#92 | Defensive End
Player
Aidan Birr None-None
Chase Bond None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA TECH
0%
📊
NC STATE
100%
GEORGIA TECH --
NC STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Georgia Tech)
Georgia TechGT (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Tech Cover

76.2%

NC State Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)

GT By 1-6 points

15.3%

GT By 7-13 points

19.7%

NCSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

NCSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
GEORGIA TECH
24
NC STATE
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA TECH
31
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Georgia Tech Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim NC State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Georgia Tech (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim NC State (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 GT @ NCSU 36 - 48
Nov 21, 2024 NCSU @ GT 29 - 30
Dec 5, 2020 GT @ NCSU 13 - 23
Nov 21, 2019 NCSU @ GT 26 - 28
Nov 8, 2014 GT @ NCSU 56 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.7% more
Georgia Tech: 220.6 vs NC State: 141.8
First Downs (L5) +25.7% more
Georgia Tech: 24.6 vs NC State: 18.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Georgia Tech: 0.6 vs NC State: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +12.7% more
Georgia Tech: 468.6 vs NC State: 409.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GT Score 34.0 36
NCSU Score 24.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 24.6 26.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 141.8 / 220.6 243.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.64 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 409.2 / 468.6 583.0 / 559.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GT
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -7.9
NCSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GT
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -7.9
NCSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
GT
NCSU
GT
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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