Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kentucky @ Auburn UK @ AUB

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

2-5  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

4-4  |  Home

3
Key Game
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Jacob Kauwe None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
0%
📊
AUBURN
100%
KENTUCKY --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
24.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
KentuckyUK (-3.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kentucky Cover

38.8%

Auburn Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AUB +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

UK By 1-6 points

17.0%

UK By 7-13 points

18.0%

AUB By 1-6 points

14.7%

AUB By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
14
KENTUCKY
10
AUBURN
Simulated Score
24
KENTUCKY
27
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kentucky Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
C
Sim Auburn (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 24.0
C
Sim o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 UK @ AUB 10 - 3
Oct 26, 2024 AUB @ UK 24 - 10
Sep 26, 2020 UK @ AUB 13 - 29
Oct 15, 2015 AUB @ UK 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.6% more
Kentucky: 1.8 vs Auburn: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +13.4% more
Kentucky: 22.3 vs Auburn: 19.3
Total Yards (L5) +12.7% more
Kentucky: 386.4 vs Auburn: 337.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Auburn: 167.2 vs Kentucky: 135.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 14.0 10
AUB Score 10.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 22.3 17.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 167.2 / 135.0 118.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 337.4 / 386.4 241.0 / 240.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
UK
AUB
UK
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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