Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Cincinnati @ Utah CIN @ UTAH

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

7-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 10:15 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

6-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Max Fletcher None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CINCINNATI
100%
📊
UTAH
0%
CINCINNATI --
UTAH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah)
CincinnatiCIN (-3.5) 0 UtahUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cincinnati Cover

47.2%

Utah Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.1%

CIN By 7-13 points

14.6%

UTAH By 1-6 points

16.7%

UTAH By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
34
CINCINNATI
35
UTAH
Simulated Score
24
CINCINNATI
27
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Utah (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 CIN @ UTAH 14 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +67.0% more
Utah: 0.9 vs Cincinnati: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.8% more
Utah: 293.1 vs Cincinnati: 202.5
Total Yards (L5) +18.8% more
Utah: 489.1 vs Cincinnati: 411.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 34.0 14
UTAH Score 35.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.5 / 23.2 29.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 293.1 / 202.5 267.0 / 206.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards 489.1 / 411.6 480.0 / 427.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
CIN
UTAH
CIN
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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