Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ San José St HAW @ SJSU

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

6-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 10:30 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

2-5  |  Home

45
Key Game
Luther McCoy
KEY GAME

Luther McCoy

#52 | Defensive Lineman
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Luther McCoy None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
0%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
100%
HAWAI'I --
SAN JOSÉ ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Hawai'i)
Hawai'iHAW (-3.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

69.1%

San José St Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HAW -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

HAW By 1-6 points

16.5%

HAW By 7-13 points

19.3%

SJSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
HAWAI'I
24
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
24
HAWAI'I
31
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawai'i Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San José St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawai'i (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim San José St (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 SJSU @ HAW 20 - 16
Nov 1, 2025 HAW @ SJSU 38 - 45
Oct 28, 2023 SJSU @ HAW 35 - 0
Nov 26, 2022 HAW @ SJSU 14 - 27
Sep 18, 2021 SJSU @ HAW 17 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.6% more
San José State: 126.6 vs Hawai'i: 114.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 31.0 38
SJSU Score 24.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.2 / 22.0 26.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 126.6 / 114.5 172.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 460.1 / 448.8 630.0 / 496.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
HAW
SJSU
HAW
ML
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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