Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Texas St JMU @ TXST

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

6-1  |  Road

52
FINAL
Tue, Oct 28 • 8:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

3-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Javis Mynatt
KEY GAME

Javis Mynatt

#7 | Safety
@
DonTerry Russell
KEY GAME

DonTerry Russell

#5 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Javis Mynatt None-None
DonTerry Russell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
0%
📊
TEXAS ST
100%
JAMES MADISON --
TEXAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (-3.5) 0 Texas StTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

99.1%

Texas St Cover

0.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JMU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

1.9%

JMU By 7-13 points

5.3%

TXST By 1-6 points

0.6%

TXST By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
49
JAMES MADISON
16
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
17
JAMES MADISON
31
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas St Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
B
Sim Texas St (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
B
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 28, 2025 JMU @ TXST 52 - 20
Oct 1, 2022 TXST @ JMU 13 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
James Madison: 251.0 vs Texas State: 213.6
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
James Madison: 0.6 vs Texas State: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +11.2% more
Texas State: 1.4 vs James Madison: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 49.0 52
TXST Score 16.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 23.6 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 213.6 / 251.0 122.0 / 247.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.4 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 517.6 / 480.7 352.0 / 511.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
JMU
TXST
JMU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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