Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTEP @ Kennesaw St UTEP @ KENN

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

2-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Tue, Oct 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

5-2  |  Home

33
Key Game
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
@
Kody Jones
KEY GAME

Kody Jones

#12 | Defensive Back
Player
Carlos Arreola None-None
Kody Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
100%
📊
KENNESAW ST
0%
UTEP --
KENNESAW ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Kennesaw State)
UTEPUTEP (-3.5) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

1.3%

Kennesaw St Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

UTEP By 1-6 points

0.9%

UTEP By 7-13 points

0.3%

KENN By 1-6 points

2.5%

KENN By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
UTEP
38
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
24
UTEP
27
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kennesaw St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Kennesaw St Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kennesaw St (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
B
Sim Kennesaw St (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 28, 2025 UTEP @ KENN 20 - 33
Nov 9, 2024 KENN @ UTEP 35 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.3% more
Kennesaw State: 164.3 vs UTEP: 114.7
Total Yards (L5) +28.1% more
Kennesaw State: 413.1 vs UTEP: 322.4
First Downs (L5) +27.8% more
Kennesaw State: 20.0 vs UTEP: 15.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Kennesaw State: 0.4 vs UTEP: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 7.0 20
KENN Score 38.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 15.6 18.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 164.3 / 114.7 150.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 413.1 / 322.4 304.0 / 295.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
UTEP
KENN
UTEP
ML
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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