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JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

4-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Wed, Oct 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-6  |  Home

21
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
0%
📊
MTSU
100%
JAX STATE --
MTSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Jacksonville State)
Jax StateJXST (-3.5) 0 MTSUMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

78.4%

MTSU Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JXST -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

JXST By 1-6 points

14.7%

JXST By 7-13 points

19.7%

MTSU By 1-6 points

10.0%

MTSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
JACKSONVILLE STATE
20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE STATE
28
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim MTSU Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Sim MTSU (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MTSU @ JXST 13 - 23
Oct 29, 2025 JXST @ MTSU 24 - 21
Oct 23, 2024 MTSU @ JXST 20 - 42
Oct 4, 2023 JXST @ MTSU 45 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +64.9% more
Jacksonville State: 284.8 vs Middle Tennessee: 100.1
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Jacksonville State: 428.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 371.7
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Jacksonville State: 23.7 vs Middle Tennessee: 21.5
Turnovers (L5) +38.3% more
Middle Tennessee: 1.5 vs Jacksonville State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 31.0 24
MTSU Score 20.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 23.7 18.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 100.1 / 284.8 84.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 371.7 / 428.4 319.0 / 356.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
MTSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
MTSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
JXST
MTSU
JXST
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 6-0
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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