Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulane @ UTSA TULN @ UTSA

TULANE

TULANETULN

6-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Thu, Oct 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

3-4  |  Home

48
Key Game
Colin O'Carroll
KEY GAME

Colin O'Carroll

#75 | Offensive Lineman
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Colin O'Carroll None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULANE
100%
📊
UTSA
0%
TULANE --
UTSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (UTSA)
TulaneTULN (-3.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulane Cover

41.5%

UTSA Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTSA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

TULN By 1-6 points

15.3%

TULN By 7-13 points

12.9%

UTSA By 1-6 points

17.0%

UTSA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24
TULANE
27
UTSA
Simulated Score
24
TULANE
27
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UTSA Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UTSA Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UTSA (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim UTSA (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 30, 2025 TULN @ UTSA 26 - 48
Nov 24, 2023 UTSA @ TULN 16 - 29
Nov 9, 2013 TULN @ UTSA 7 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +55.3% more
UTSA: 1.6 vs Tulane: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.5% more
UTSA: 183.4 vs Tulane: 149.7
First Downs (L5) +20.4% more
Tulane: 22.3 vs UTSA: 17.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 24.0 26
UTSA Score 27.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 22.3 28.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 183.4 / 149.7 132.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 374.3 / 405.4 523.0 / 434.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
TULN
UTSA
TULN
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
usatoday 12 hours, 54 minutes ago
Tulane's Clash with Southern Miss: A Defining Moment for Coach W…
yahoo 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Texas Opens SEC Play as 5.5-Point Favorite at Tennessee
yahoo 2 weeks, 3 days ago
Texas Longhorns Edge UTSA 30-6: Offense Sputters, Defense Shines…
yahoo 2 weeks, 4 days ago
Kansas State Hosts Tulane in Final Nonconference Tune-Up
si 2 weeks, 5 days ago