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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-0  |  Road

101
FINAL
Mon, Oct 27 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

1-2  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
THUNDER --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Dallas)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

9.7%

Mavericks Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

OKC By 1-7 points

6.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

1.7%

DAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
98
OKLAHOMA CITY
111
DALLAS
Simulated Score
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+8) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 209.0
D
Sim u226.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.9% more
Dallas: 3.6 vs Oklahoma City: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.1% more
Dallas: 11.2 vs Oklahoma City: 10.0
Assists (L5) +9.2% more
Dallas: 16.7 vs Oklahoma City: 15.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Dallas: 36.5% vs Oklahoma City: 29.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 98.0 101
DAL Score 111.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 29.0 42.9 / 26.4
Assists 16.7 / 15.3 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.8 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 44.6 37.3 / 44.7
Free Throw % 5223.0 / 5482.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 31.5 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.0 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
OKC
DAL
OKC
ML
62% 63-39
70% 80-34
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
ATS
67% 68-34
73% 83-30-1
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
TTL
59% 60-41-1
67% 76-38
100% 81-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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