NEW YORK
KNICKSNY
2-0 | Road
107
MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-1 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
0%
HEAT
100%
KNICKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NY -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)
NY By 1-7 points
23.0%
NY By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
118
NEW YORK
Miami
108
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
108
NEW YORK
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Knicks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Knicks (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
MIA @ NY
125 - 132
Nov 17, 2025
NY @ MIA
113 - 115
Nov 14, 2025
MIA @ NY
132 - 140
Oct 26, 2025
NY @ MIA
107 - 115
Mar 17, 2025
MIA @ NY
95 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
New York: 80.5%
vs
Miami: 76.8%
Steals (L5)
+32.9% more
Miami: 10.4
vs
New York: 7.8
Assists (L5)
+21.5% more
Miami: 27.1
vs
New York: 22.3
Turnovers (L5)
+14.0% more
Miami: 19.2
vs
New York: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NY Score
118.0
107
MIA Score
108.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 33.5
34.3 / 35.0
Assists
27.1 / 22.3
0.0 / 0.0
Blocks
4.3 / 3.9
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 41.1
48.4 / 43.0
Free Throw %
7681.0 / 8050.0
0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
52.4 / 47.9
0.0 / 0.0
Steals
10.4 / 7.8
0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
19.2 / 16.9
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY
Advantage
70-32-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY
Advantage
58-44-0
(56.9%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: -1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NY
MIA
NY
ML
48%
46-50
61%
114-72
59%
48-34
56%
57-45
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
124-62
59%
48-34
56%
57-45
TTL
59%
57-39
72%
133-53
100%
82-0
100%
102-0
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