Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Mavericks TOR @ DAL

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

1-1  |  Road

129
FINAL
Sun, Oct 26 • 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-2  |  Home

139
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
RAPTORS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Dallas)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

11.5%

Mavericks Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

TOR By 1-7 points

8.0%

TOR By 8-14 points

2.2%

DAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
111
TORONTO
123
DALLAS
Simulated Score
113
TORONTO
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.5 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 DAL @ TOR 92 - 122
Oct 26, 2025 TOR @ DAL 129 - 139
Apr 11, 2025 TOR @ DAL 102 - 124
Dec 7, 2024 DAL @ TOR 125 - 118
Feb 28, 2024 DAL @ TOR 136 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.7% more
Dallas: 5.4 vs Toronto: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Dallas: 78.3% vs Toronto: 76.7%
Assists (L5) +13.1% more
Toronto: 28.9 vs Dallas: 25.1
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
Toronto: 10.3 vs Dallas: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 111.0 129
DAL Score 123.0 139
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 34.0 42.9 / 24.0
Assists 25.1 / 28.9 0.0 / 0.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.1 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 47.2 37.3 / 56.8
Free Throw % 7834.0 / 7670.0 0.0 / 0.0
Rebounding 45.4 / 47.5 0.0 / 0.0
Steals 9.2 / 10.3 0.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 16.8 / 16.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
TOR
DAL
TOR
ML
62% 63-39
55% 57-47
54% 44-37
55% 48-39
ATS
67% 68-34
61% 62-40-2
54% 44-37
55% 48-39
TTL
59% 60-41-1
60% 62-42
100% 81-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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